Another Great Winner For Mathematician Betting – 7/1

Another big priced winner from this service yesterday- details below. As stated previously been majorly impressed with Guys service – so far its been a fantastic combination of being educational and at the same time (and most importantly) providing winners. The daily email is so packed full of information i’m not sure how he does it by 11am every day but i suppose if you’re been providing selections for as as this service has you’re going to know what you’re looking for. The beauty of it is though you can, as i’m doing’ just take the ‘selections’ & ‘mentions’ and ignore the rest of the message. I’ve attached yesterdays email to illustrate below.

Kempton 6.40
Win Bet

More details on the service here

Total Profit +£2337

1 Mention Today

Kempton 6.40


Win Bet

The Racing is slowly getting better this week but its only
in small steps. It has been dreadful so far. Stronger today
as you’d expect but its that time when the All weather is
on its last legs and the National Hunt in limbo and a flat
season is just around the corner. Betting all year round is
bound to see peaks and troughs. We had a very big peak
at Cheltenham with around 13 points profit which puts
us in a seriously good position in March. Since that peak
we have hit that trough. Boring racing. Boring messages
and we have dropped 3 points. All you have to do really
is find profit and maximise it during the Peaks but when
you get the troughs keep losses to a bare minimum and
don’t be afraid to walk away and not have bets everyday.

It has been quite depressing but 13 points won and 3 lost
since then shows we have played this trough right going
through a dull period very cautiously. I’m trying to find
bets and strong messages but I’m relaxed as it is obvious
that we are not being offered much. Today is better and
I want to see more winners today . The annoying thing
in some of the races a few too many make the shortlist
and its just a little bit more competetive than I’d want.

Today’s Options For Bets

Kempton 5.40

SHERJAWY Win Bet 4/1
FORTY PROOF Saver Bet 4/1

Kempton 6.40
Win Bet

Kempton 8.10
Each Way 4/1

I thought long and hard about the options today. It is
obviously a day where choosing the wrong option is a
possibility. I’m going with BOOKIESINDEXDOTNET.
He is the least likely of my best options but he is also
the biggest price and comes with less complications
and will meet fewer fancied horses so whilst a risk at
the price I am happy he is worth a small bet today.

T o d a y s N e g a t i v e

Lingfield 3.00 – JAKE THE SNAKE

S t r o n g e s t S t a t i s t i c T o d a y

Ludlow 2.20

* This is a Novice Claiming Hurdle
* I looked at every one of these races
* Thats all year round and every distance
* I looked at fillies aged 4
* None managed to win with under 3 previous runs
* Those that tried it had a 0-148 record
* One did win a 4yo only race (Ma Petite Rouge)
* None though against all aged horses
* PONTE DI ROSA fails that and is rejected
* Look to oppose her rather than lay her

T u e s d a y s R e v i e w

It was a weak days racing yesterday and I predicted if
you gave it a miss then you would not be dissapointed
and it turned out that way. There is nothing much to
brag about and one of the days where hands were tied
and caution the sensible option and the best policy.


P R O F I L E S @ P R E V I E W S

N a t i o n a l H u n t

Ludlow 2.20

11/4 Ponte Di Rosa, 7/2 Argaum, 7/2 Cityar
4/1 A Little Bit Dusty, 8/1 Redhotdoc, 9/1 Bin End
33/1 Fairy Trader, 66/1 Simplified.

This Novice Claiming Hurdle is quite a rare race. I can’t sort it out but I had PONTE DI ROSA as a negative but as she is not shorter in the betting there may not be enough edge for us. PONTE DI ROSA is a once raced filly. I looked at what few similar races there are like this in March and April and found horses with 1-2 runs really struggling. In fact look at fillies who run in these races at any time of year and at any distance. Fillies with under 3 runs like PONTE DI ROSA are 0-148 all year round so you can see why I feel lighter raced horses are wrong here. That said I think she has drifted out too much. I’d have laid her at 7/4 but anything over 4/1 is too big especially when she is one of the very few with a recent run and good recent form and when you also consider several others have difficult tasks and seem to be struggling for form its more complicated. I would prefer a handicapper than aan auction horse so perhaps ARGAUM and A LITTLE BIT DUSTY are the safest options given the choice. Its very messy though with hardly any in form.


L u d l o w 2.50

10/11 Young Mags, 7/2 Blowing A Hoolie, 8/1 Like Ben
8/1 Miss Harriet Lewis, Kabira, 20/1 Small And Mighty
25/1 Ben Eva.

This is a Mares Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f. The issue will
be about what performance YOUNG MAGS brings to the
race after a bad run 125 days ago. I tend to agree with the
Racing Post that although unsafe she offers far more than
the rest. I couldnt bet BLOWING A HOOLIE coming via
onlya 4yo race when starting 66/1 in that race. Its a sort
of race where if YOUNG MAGS doesnt win anything can
but the sensible choice for me is YOUNG MAGS.

L i n g f i e l d 3.00

* Messy 6f seller
* JAKE THE SNAKE wouldnt be my 1st choice
* Not aged 11 with 1 run since last June
* CATALYZE – I’d see him as a danger and optional saver
* WATERLOO DOCK would be my first choice

L i n g f i e l d 3.30

3/1 Sabys Gem, 5/1 Blueberry Fizz, 5/1 Dorothy´s Dancing
8/1 Avonvalley, 8/1 Royal Envoy, 8/1 True Satire
10/1 Efisio Princess, 12/1 Flaxen Lake, 20/1 Luisa Tetrazzini 20/1 Metropolitan Chief, 25/1 Custom House, 25/1 Tamino.

* This is a 6f Handicap for 0-60 rated horses
* LUISA TETRAZZINI is a mare absent 225 days
* Very few mares won first time out and none as old as her
* LUISA TETRAZZINI has the worst draw as well
* TAMINO is 9 and got well beaten last time
* No horse as old as him overcame a big defeat at 7f
* DOROTHY´S DANCING is a 4yo filly
* She comes from a 5f race
* Fillies aged 4 from 5f races were just 2-71
* None had more than 9st as she does
* Those without a run within a week were just 1-55
* That winner had more backclass than her
* TRUE SATIRE is a filly with an absence
* No fillies won as inexperienced as she is
* Claimer ridden she has a bad profile
* EFISIO PRINCESS is a 9yo mare absent 33 days
* Only one mare won aged 7 or more
* She ran within 2 weeks and had more backclass
* CUSTOM HOUSE is not running well enough
* BLUEBERRY FIZZ is a 4yo filly
* She won a 6f handicap last time out
* There were 4 fillies like her doing that
* These finished 3 W 3 7
* I’d pass her as statistically fine but she has some issues
* She has a 7lbs claimer on her back
* BLUEBERRY FIZZ is also drawn 12
* Look at handicaps here with 9 + runners
* There have been 20 so far in 2012
* No winners were drawn 11 or 12 (0-20)
* Go back further to 2012 and 2011
* You need to go back another 22 races for one
* The last Stall 11 or 12 to win was Febuary 2011
* Its not a good draw and with the claimer she is unsafe
* METROPOLITAN CHIEF is an exposed 8yo
* He was well beaten last time over 7f
* I found 1 similar winner to him

S h o r t l i s t

* FLAXEN LAKE is an exposed 5yo
* He comes from a 6f handicap within 2 weeks
* He has Class 4 form and no higher
* I found 2 similar winners so he is shortlisted
* FLAXEN LAKE has a good chance

* ROYAL ENVOY is 9 and comes from 6f
* He has Class 2 form and a run in 2 weeks
* Despite his age its a good profile
* I found 3 similar winners and he msut be respected
* I think his biggest problem is a 0-7 record here
* He seems to love Kempton and hasnt ran here at 6f

* AVONVALLEY is an exposed 5yo mare
* She comes from a 6f handicap within 7 days
* She has 2 or more runs this callender year
* Similar horses had a 3-4 record
* AVONVALLEY is a strong positive
* His run in Febuary really caught my eye
* I tipped her to win a race on March 3rd
* She was a non runner that day
* She next ran on March 21st and I didnt fancy her
* Missing March 3rd race meant she was absent 34 days
* She still managed a fine second at Kempton
* AVONVALLEY could have better drawn than stall 11
* She is still a big positive though

* SABYS GEM is a 4yo male
* He won a 6f handicap last time out
* He has Class 4 form and a recent run
* SABYS GEM has also had 7-8-9 career starts
* Horses with this profile had a W W W record
* SABYS GEM comes out as a very strong runner
* His trainer is a nightmare to read though


SABYS GEM 4/1 Saver Bet

T a u n t o n 3.40

Evs Woodlark Island, 9/2 Millers Reef, 11/2 Jackers
13/2 Dukes Art, 8/1 Southway Star, 11/1 Be Kind.

This is a handicap hurdle just short of 2m 4f. I find it hard to oppose WOODLARK ISLAND with a recent win. There
are holes in the profiles of some of his rivals. I looked for horses like DUKES ART from Novice hurdles with 3 runs
and found the winners younger and carrying less weight so
he just fell short. The Maiden Hurdlers that won all came
from 20f or more and MILLERS REEF does not. I think
SOUTHWAY STAR is a threat and I have found 2 mares
aged 7 winning after a long absence. They were similar in
a lot of ways to SOUTHWAY STAR and the price does
tempt me here. Perhaps WOODLARK ISLAND may be
a sensible split stake bet at 5/4 with the other half stake
on SOUTHWAY STAR at the bigger price. Short of that
there is a case for SOUTHWAY STAR against a decent
favourite and I would prefer this pair to the others here.

L i n g f i e l d 4.00

5/2 Copper Canyon, 3/1 Ay Tay Tate
7/2 Moresweets ´n Lace 6/1 Kiss A Prince
8/1 Edgewater, 12/1 Jawaab, 12/1 Timocracy.

This is a 12f handicap. First off the list is EDGEWATER
who has a shaky profile anyway as an exposed horses and
up in distance when lacking a run in a month. Worse still
he’s by Bahamian Bounty a horse that has got an appaling
record with his offspring at this distance. If any win then
it may well be here but two powerful reasons not to select
him. MORESWEETS ´N LACE is next to go as she has a
horrific absence for a mare and none like her have won a
similar race. I think a combination of factors will damage
TIMOCRACY’s chance not least an absence and step up
in trip especially with just 1 run since last November.

* KISS A PRINCE – Hard to read. Not sure he is in form.
* JAWAAB – I’d have been happier with a more recent race
* Especially for an 8yo and he was only average in profile
* AY TAY TATE – I’d prefer a run within 2 weeks
* I would still see him as a positive
* COPPER CANYON – Hard to read but enough to shortlist
* COPPER CANYON just looks the safest choice

T a u n t o n 4.10

15/8 On Khee, 2/1 Aine´s Delight, 5/2 Caravel
13/2 Run Along Boy, 25/1 Della Sun.

This is a 2m 1f Handicap Hurdle. I see DELLA SUN easy
to avoid. There is also some weakness in ON KHEE here.
I couldnt match her to a winner. Not as a 5yo mare thats
up in trip and has just 4 runs. Of course she can win given
a small field but she is statistically weak and priced up on stable reputation. Not sure about CARAVEL with such a
long absence and topweight and just 3 runs this year. He’s
not a negative. Neither is RUN ALONG BOY another to
face a long absence but another that isnt easy to match.
My choice would be the mare AINE´S DELIGHT as she
brings form and fitness into the race something lacking
in most others. I like AINE´S DELIGHT best of all.

L i n g f i e l d 4.30

5/4 Red Senor, 5/2 Sugar Prince, 7/2 Samba Night
6/1 Chart, 20/1 Christopher Chua

Difficult maiden race for 3 year olds over 5f without much
knowledge of how horses have wintered. The only winners
I founded similar to CHART from handicaps were fillies so
I cant match her exactly. We have to guess anyway but I’d
be happier if I could match a winner. SAMBA NIGHT and
RED SENOR are seasonal debutants and the fact he’s raced
twice more hurts SAMBA NIGHT and of the two the best
profile belongs to RED SENOR. I see SUGAR PRINCE as
weak hammered only 8 days ago over further. It’s hard to
see past RED SENOR who is only a circumstantial choice.

L i n g f i e l d 5.00

11/4 Court Applause, 100/30 Estonia
9/2 Ability N Delivery, 10/1 Befortyfour, 10/1 Billy Red
12/1 Nine Before Ten.

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-75 rated horses
* COURT APPLAUSE won a 5f handicap last time
* I looked at 4 year olds doing that without a recent run
* Most ran within 2 weeks and only one managed longer
* COURT APPLAUSE is not a negative but its a weak profile
* I really wanted a more recent race for a last time winner
* Not convinced he is drawn well either
* BEFORTYFOUR – no benefit of the doubt with his absence
* ESTONIA is an exposed mare absent a month +
* I wanted a more recent run for a mare
* NINE BEFORE TEN – I dont see her as fit
* Not as a filly with 1 bad run since October
* BILLY RED – Don’t feel he offers enough


* ABILITY N DELIVERY – Hard to read but a positive
* He gete the benefit of the doubt about his backclass
* His Irish form confuses his profile but I rate him fine
* ABILITY N DELIVERY – Risky but a speculative choice

K e m p t o n 5.40

9/2 Howyadoingnotsobad, 5/1 Forty Proof
5/1 Wreningham, 6/1 Invigilator, 7/1 Sherjawy
8/1 Athwaab, 8/1 Sarangoo, 10/1 Porthgwidden Beach
16/1 Dingaan.

* This is a 5f handicap for 0-62 rated horses
* I looked for horses absent more than 12 weeks
* There were 4 winners doing that
* Fillies with that absence and more were 1-70
* SARANGOO fails that and is different from the sole winner
* SARANGOO has more runs and doesnt appeal
* HOWYADOINGNOTSOBAD is a 4yo debutant
* I looked at all debutants and they all had 12 + runs
* HOWYADOINGNOTSOBAD has only had 8 runs
* I wanted a closer match for a first time out horse
* WRENINGHAM noy a good enough profile
* He is an exposed 7yo on a career high mark
* He lacks a recent run and has ran once in only 88 days
* No wins at Kempton he looks unsafe
* ATHWAAB – Exposed mare without a recent race
* Not too far off being acceptable but one flaw
* All similar winners did better than her last time
* DINGAAN is 9 and drops in trip
* No more than 1 winner was like him
* That horse had a longer absence
* That raises the question if he did enough last time
* Possibly not and he looks unsafe

S h o r t l i s t

* INVIGILATOR is 4 and down in distance
* I looked at similar 4 year olds with 7-12 runs
* There was one similar winners and he is shortlisted
* PORTHGWIDDEN BEACH is an exposed 4yo filly
* She comes from a 5f handicap
* With a recent run she is a positive
* PORTHGWIDDEN BEACH comes out well
* FORTY PROOF is exposed aged 4 and down in distance
* He has backclass and a good recent run
* I found 2 similar winners and like his profile
* SHERJAWY is 8 but has a recent run over 5f
* There are winners like him and he has to be considered


I just see SHERJAWY and FORTY PROOF having more
substance and proven ability than my other 2 shortlisted.
I would see both as worth including if anyone wants a bet.

SHERJAWY Win Bet 5/1
FORTY PROOF Saver Bet 5/1

* Kempton 6.10 – I’d have avoided Lady Mandy
* Dont like her up in trip and a first time out filly
* I suspect one of COURTESY CALL and SAUCY CAT wins

K e m p t o n 6.40

5/2 Lesotho, 4/1 Mitie Mouse, 5/1 J J Leary
6/1 Bookiesindexdotnet, 6/1 Macdonald Mor
8/1 Blodwen Abbey, 10/1 Fugitive Motel.

* This looks a dangerous 5f handicap for 3 year olds
* LESOTHO is a filly with 2 runs first time out
* Statistically thats a bad profile and she is wrong
* The problem is what to oppose her with
* MITIE MOUSE has an absence and a bit too much weight
* J J LEARY has to prove he can cope with a 5f race
* BLODWEN ABBEY doesnt appeal
* FUGITIVE MOTEL – No winners came from 7f claimers
* BOOKIESINDEXDOTNET has to be a positive
* I found 2 winners just like him with recent runs
* Not very attractive frame with just 7 runners
* BOOKIESINDEXDOTNET has the best profile
* BOOKIESINDEXDOTNET at 7/1 + would be my choice

K e m p t o n 7.10

11/4 Unlimited, 3/1 Indian Art, 4/1 Alpha Tauri
9/2 Spinning Ridge, 6/1 Cheylesmore, 8/1 Finefrenzyrolling.

This is an unpleasantly framed 7f claimer. I would have to
avoid INDIAN ART with just 1 run in Months and I think
he falls short of the required level of fitness. I felt the same about CHEYLESMORE who looks unsafe as well. I couldn’t bet FINEFRENZYROLLING. These would be negatives in
the race. I can live with any of the others none of which I
see as particularly strong. SPINNING RIDGE could be one
for a saver with a recent run. UNLIMITED the main bet.

K e m p t o n 8.10

11/4 Haamaat, 4/1 Intercept, 5/1 Ducal, 5/1 Street Power
10/1 Dozy Joe, 10/1 Dubarshi, 16/1 Masai Moon
20/1 Majuro, 20/1 Ocean Legend, 20/1 Polar Annie
33/1 Rajeh.

* This is a 7f handicap
* HAAMAAT is a very sexy runner
* I dont like her profile though and cant match her
* Looked at 4yo fillies up in distance
* None won like her with so few races
* INTERCEPT also has a bad profile
* DUBARSHI – Wouldnt be my first choive
* MAJURO – Respected but I’d want a more recent run
* DUCAL – Every chance and one to consider
* STREET POWER each way looks the best bet




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